Moneyline

How moneyline prices pay

A moneyline is a bet on who wins, with no point spread. The favorite carries a minus price and the underdog a plus price. In a game priced Team A −150 and Team B +130, a $50 bet on Team A profits $33.33 if it wins, and a $50 bet on Team B profits $65.

The favorite pays less because it is expected to win more often. Backing heavy favorites means risking a lot to win a little: at −400, you risk $400 to win $100, and a single loss erases four wins.

The probability behind the prices

Converted to implied probability, −150 is 60.00% and +130 is 43.48%, which add up to 103.48%. The extra 3.48 points is the book’s margin. Dividing each side by 103.48% gives a no-vig estimate of 57.98% for Team A and 42.02% for Team B, or fair prices of about −138 and +138.

The gap between the two prices shows how much margin the book is charging: a 20-cent line such as −150/+130 costs more than a 10-cent line such as −150/+140. The no-vig odds guide shows the full method.

What counts as a win

Whether overtime counts, and whether a tie is possible, depends on the sport and the market:

• NFL: overtime counts. If a regular-season game still ends in a tie, books generally grade a two-way moneyline as a push.
• NBA and college football: overtime counts, and games can’t end tied.
• NHL: the standard moneyline includes overtime and the shootout. A separate regulation-time line settles on the 60-minute result, with the tie as its own outcome.
• MLB: extra innings count. Some baseball bets depend on the listed starting pitchers, so a late pitching change can void them; check how the bet was placed.
• Soccer: the standard market is three-way (home, draw, away) over 90 minutes plus stoppage time. “Draw no bet” removes the draw and refunds the stake if the match ends level.

House rules decide the details, so read them for any market you haven’t bet before.

Picking a winner or giving points

For a small favorite, the moneyline and a −1.5 spread are nearly the same bet: they differ only when the favorite wins by exactly one point. Compare which price is better for the outcome you expect. For lopsided games, the choice matters more. A −400 favorite might also be a −9.5 spread favorite; the moneyline wins if the team wins at all, while the spread needs a margin of 10 or more at a price near −110.

Neither is better by default. The question is the same for both: does your estimate of the chance clear the break-even rate the price implies?

Favorites, underdogs, and long shots

Research across many betting markets has found a favorite-longshot bias: long shots tend to be priced shorter than their results justify, so bets on them lose more on average than bets on favorites. The size of the effect varies by sport and market, and it doesn’t make any particular favorite a good bet. It is a reason to be skeptical of a long shot that looks attractive only because the payout is large.